References for Climate Change Workshop
General
Allen, C.D., M. Savage, D.A. Falk, K.F. Suckling, T.W. Swetnam, T. Schulke, P.B. Stacey, P. Morgan, M. Hoffman and J.T. Klingel. 2002. Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective. Ecological Applications. 12 (5): 1418-1433. [PDF - 719kb]
Bachelet, D., R.P. Neilson, J.M. Lenihan and R.J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States. Ecosystems 4: 164-185. [PDF – 871kb]
Bachelet, D., R.P. Neilson, T. Hickler, R.J. Drapek, J.M. Lenihan, M.T. Sykes, B. Smith, S. Sitch and K. Thonicke. 2003. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17(2): 1045. [PDF – 1.25mb]
Botkin, D.B., H. Saxe, M.B. Araujo, R. Betts, R.H.W. Bradshaw, T. Cedhagen, P. Chesson, T.P. Dawson, J.R. Etterson, D.P. Faith, S. Ferrier, A. Guisan, A.S. Hansen, D.W. Hilbert, C. Loehle, C. Margules, M. New, M.J. Sobel and D.R.B. Stockwell. 2007. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57(3): 227-236. [PDF – 144kb]
Breshears, D.D. and C.D. Allen. 2002. The importance of rapid, disturbance-induced losses in carbon management and sequestration. Global Ecology & Biogeography 11:1-5. [PDF – 407kb]
Burdon, J.J., P.H. Thrall and L. Ericson. 2006. The current and future dynamics of disease in plant communities. Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 44:19-39. [PDF – 200kb]
Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, T. Doyle. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2: 357-394. [PDF – 1.33mb]
Choi, Y.D. 2007. Restoration ecology to the future: a call for new paradigm. Restoration Ecology 15(2): 351-353. [PDF – 44.9kb]
Daly, C. 2006. Guidelines for assessing the suitability of spatial climate data sets. Int. J. Climatol. 26: 707-721. [PDF – 353kb]
Fox, D. 2007. Back to the no-analog future? Science 316:823-825. [PDF – 305kb]
Hicke, J.A, J.A. Logan, J. Powell and D.S. Ojima. 2006. Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the western United States. J. Geophysical Res. 111:G02019. [PDF – 611kb]
Kirkhoff, A.J and B.J. Enquist. 2007. The implications of scaling approaches for understanding resilience and reorganization. BioScience 57(6): 489-499. [PDF – 4.18mb]
Levin, S.A. 2005. Self-organization and the emergence of complexity in ecological systems. BioScience 55(12): 1075-1079. [PDF – 194kb]
Loehle, C. and D. LeBlanc. 1996. Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests: a critical review. Ecological Modelling 90:1-31. [PDF – 2.82mb]
Logan, J.A., J. Regniere and J.A. Powell. 2003. Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Front. Ecol. Environ. 1(3): 130-137. [PDF – 2.14mb]
Lonsdale, D. and J.N. Gibbs. 1994. Effects of climate change on fungal diseases of trees. In: Frankland JC, Magan N, Gadd GM, editors. Fungi and environmental change. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1996:1-19. [PDF – 366kb]
Millar, C.I., N.L. Stephenson and S.L. Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications. [PDF – 100kb]
Mote, P.W., E.A. Parson, A.F. Hamlet, W.S. Keeton, D. Lettenmaier, N. Mantua, E.L. Miles, D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, R. Slaughter and A.K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climatic change: the water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 61: 45-88. [PDF – 471kb]
Oren, R. 2007. Responses to forests to atmosphere enriched with CO2. 34th Annual Symposium of the AGSBS, York University, Toronto, Ontario. [PDF – 2.95mb]
Pascual, M. and F. Guichard. 2005. Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 20(2): 88-95. [PDF – 232kb]
Rehfeldt, G.E., N.L. Crookston, M.V. Warwell and J.S. Evans. 2006. Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. Int. J. Plant Sci. 167(6): 1123-1150. [PDF – 7.91mb]
Saxon, E., B. Baker, W. Hargrove, F. Hoffman and C. Zganjar. 2005. Mapping environments at risk under different climate change scenarios. Ecology Letters 8: 53-60. [PDF – 988kb]
Spittlehouse, D.L. and R.B. Stewart. 2003. Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 4(1). [PDF – 123kb]
Swetnam, T.W., C.D. Allen and J.L. Bentancourt. 1999. Applied historical ecology: using the past to manage for the future. Ecological Applications 9(4): 1189-1206. [PDF – 503kb]
Thompson, J.N. 1998. Rapid evolution as an ecological process. Trends Ecol. Evol. 13(8): 329-332. [PDF – 83kb]
Thompson, J. 2007. The mysterious demise of an ice-age relic: exposing the cause of yellow-cedar decline. Science Findings 93: 1-5. [PDF – 815kb]
Northern Boreal
Campbell, E.M., R.I. Alfaro and B. Hawkes. 2007. Spatial distribution of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in relation to climate and stand characteristics: a dendroecological analysis. J. Integrative Plant Biology 49(2): 168-178. [PDF – 288kb]
Logan, J.A. and J.A. Powell. 2001. Ghost forests, global warming, and the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). American Entomologist 47(3): 160-172. [PDF – 491kb]
Woods, A., K.D. Coates and A. Hamann. 2005. Is an unprecedented dothistroma needle blight epidemic related to climate change? BioScience 55(9): 761-769. [PDF – 4.46mb]
Pinyon Juniper
Allen, C.D., and D.D. Breshears. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 95: 14839-14842. [PDF – 233kb]
Breshears, D.D., N.S. Cobb, P.M. Rich, K.P. Price, C.D. Allen, R.G. Balice, W.H. Romme, J.H. Kastens, M.L. Floyd, J. Belnap, J.J. Anderson, O.B. Myers and C.W. Meyer. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. PNAS 102(42) 15144-15148. [PDF – 621kb]
Gray, S.T., J.L. Bentancourt, S.T. Jackson and R.G. Eddy. 2006. Role of multidecadal climate variabililty in a range extension of pinyon pine. Ecology 87(5): 1124-1130. [PDF – 309kb]
Mueller, R.C., C.M. Scudder, M.E. Porter, T. Trotter III, C.A. Gehring and T.G. Whitham. 2005. Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought: evidence for long-term vegetation shifts. Journal of Ecology 93: 1085-1093. [PDF – 167kb]
Romme, W.C., C. Allen, J. Bailey, W. Baker, B. Bestelmeyer, P. Brown, K. Eisenhart, L. Floyd-Hanna, D. Huffman, B. Jacobs, R. Miller, E. Muldavin, T. Swetnam, R. Tausch and P. Weisberg. 2007. Historical and modern disturbance regimes of pinon-juniper vegetation in the western U.S. [PDF – 1.14mb]
Seager, R., M. Ting, I. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez and N. Naik. 2007. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316(5828): 1181-1184. [PDF – 1.43]
Shaw, J.D., B.E. Steed and L.T. DeBlander. 2005. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) annual inventory answers the question: what is happening to pinyon-juniper woodlands? Journal of Forestry September 2005: 280-285. [PDF – 3.45kb]
Swetnam, T.W. and D.D. Bentancourt. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American Southwest. Journal of Climate 11: 3128-3147. [PDF – 462kb]
Wilcox, B.P., D.D. Breshears and C.D. Allen. Ecohydrology of a resource-conserving semiarid woodland: effects of scale and disturbance. Ecological Monographs 73(2): 223-239. [PDF – 0.99mb]
Ponderosa Pine
Hessburg, P.F., R.G. Mitchell and G.M. Filip. 1994a. Historical and current roles of insects and pathogens in eastern Oregon and Washington forested landscapes. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-327. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 72p. [PDF – 2.34mb]
Hessburg, P.F., R.G. Mitchell and G.M. Filip. 1994b. Historical and current roles of insects and pathogens in eastern Oregon and Washington forested landscapes. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-327. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 72p. [PDF – 1.74mb]
Hessburg, P.F., J.K. Agee and J.F. Franklin. 2005. Dry forests and wildland fires of the inland Northwest USA: contrasting the landscape ecology of the pre-settlement and modern eras. Forest Ecology and Management 211: 117-139. [PDF – 3.62mb]
Lehmkuhl, J.F., P.F. Hessburg, R.L. Everett, M.H. Huff and R.D. Ottmar. 1994a. Historical and current forest landscapes of eastern Oregon and Washington. Part 1: Vegetation patterns and insect and disease hazards. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-328. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 88p. [PDF – 2.62mb]
Lehmkuhl, J.F., P.F. Hessburg, R.L. Everett, M.H. Huff and R.D. Ottmar. 1994b. Historical and current forest landscapes of eastern Oregon and Washington. Part 1: Vegetation patterns and insect and disease hazards. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-328. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 88p.[PDF – 2.58mb]
Spies, T.A., M.A. Hemstrom, A. Youngblood and S. Hummel. 2006. Conserving old-growth forest diversity in disturbance-prone landscapes. Conservation Biology 20(2): 351-362. [PDF – 592kb]
Youngblood, A., T. Max and K. Coe. 2004. Stand structure in eastside old-growth ponderosa pine forests of Oregon and northern California. Forest Ecology and Management 199: 191-217. [PDF – 1.53mb]
Spruce Fir
Bebi, P., D. Kulakowski and T.T. Veblen. 2003. Interactions between fire and spruce beetles in a subalpine rocky mountain forest landscape. Ecology 84(2): 362-371. [PDF – 579kb]
Bradley, R.S., F.T. Keimig and H.F. Diaz. 2004. Projected temperature changes along the American cordillera and the planned GCOS network. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L16210. [PDF – 544kb]
Bradley, R.S., M. Vuille, H.F. Diaz and W. Vergara. 2006. Threats to water supplies in the tropical Andes. Science 312:1755-1756. [PDF – 175kb]
Coupe, R., A.C. Stewart, and B.M. Wikeem. 1991. Engelmann Spruce - Subalpine Fir Zone. In: Ecosystems of British Columbia: Special Report Series 6. B.C. Min. For. Victoria, B.C. pp. 223-236.
Esper, J., U. Buntgen, D.C. Frank, D. Nievergelt and A. Liebhold. 2007. 1200 years of regular outbreaks in alpine insects. Proc. R. Soc. B 274: 671-679. [PDF – 483kb]
Hansen, E.M. and B.J. Bentz. 2003. Comparison of reproductive capacity among univoltine, semivoltine, and re-emerged parent spruce beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). The Canadian Entomologist 135: 697-712. [PDF – 880kb]
Kulakowski, D., T.T. Veblen and P. Bebi. 2003. Effects of fire and spruce beetle outbreak legacies on the disturbance regime of a subalpine forest in Colorado. Journal of Biogeograhpy 30:1-12. [PDF – 1.1mb]
Romme, W.H., J. Clement, J. Hicke, D. Kulakowski, L.H. MacDonald, T.L. Schoennagel and T.T. Veblen. 2006. Recent forest insect outbreaks and fire risk in Colorado Forests: a brief synthesis of relevant research. Colorado Forest Research Institute, Report (refereed), 24 pp. [PDF – 1mb]
References for Vegetation Models Workshop
Biogeochemical
Adler, P.R., S.J. Del Grosso and W.J. Parton. 2007. Life-cycle assessment of net greenhouse-gas flux for bioenergy cropping systems. Ecological Applications 17(3): 675-691. [PDF – 268kb]
Burke, I.C., W.K. Lauenroth, W.J. Parton and C.V. Cole. 1994. Interactions of landuse and ecosystem structure and function: a case study in the central Great Plains. In: Groffman, P.M., Likens, G.E. (Eds.). Integrated Regional Models. Interactions Between Humans and Their Environment. Chapman Hall, New York, pp. 79-95. [PDF – 858kb]
Del Grosso, S.J., A.R. Mosier, W.J. Parton and D.S. Ojima. 2005. DAYCENT model analysis of past and contemporary soil N2O and net greenhouse gas flux for major crops in the USA. Soil & Tillage Research 83: 9-24. [PDF – 428kb]
Parton, W.J., D.S. Ojima and D.S. Schimel. 1994. Environmental change in grasslands: assessment using models. Climatic Change 28: 111-141. [PDF – 1.95mb]
Parton, W.J., E.A. Holland, S.J. Del Grosso, M.D. Hartman, R.E. Martin, A.R. Mosier, D.S. Ojima and D.S. Schimel. 2001. Generalized model for NOx and N20 emissions from soils. Journal of Geophysical Research 106(D15): 17403-17419. [PDF – 2.73mb]
Parton, W.J., J.A. Morgan, G. Wang and S. Del Grosso. 2007. Projected ecosystem impact of the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment. New Phytologist 174(4): 823-834. [PDF – 486kb]
VEMAP Members. 1995. Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9(4): 407-437. [PDF – 2.34mb]
Dynamic General Vegetation
Bachelet, D., J.M. Lenihan, C. Daly and R.P. Neilson. 2000. Interactions between fire, grazing, and climate change at Wind Cave National Park, SD. Ecological Modelling 134: 229-244. [PDF – 539kb]
Bachelet, D., J.M. Lenihan, C. Daly, R.P. Neilson, D.S. Ojima and W.J. Parton. 2001. MC1: A dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated ecosystem fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and water--technical documentation. Version 1.0. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-508. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 95p. [PDF – 671kb]
Bachelet, D., R.P. Neilson, T. Hickler, R.J. Drapek, J.M. Lenihan, M.T. Skyes, B. Smith, S. Sitch and K. Thonicke. 2003. Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17(2): 1045. [PDF – 1.68mb]
Daly, C., D. Bachelet, J.M. Lenihan, R.P. Neilson, W. Parton and D. Ojima. 2000. Dynamic simulation of tree-grass interactions for global change studies. Ecological Applications 10(2) 449-469. [PDF – 307mb]
Lenihan, J.M., D. Bachelet, R.P. Neilson and R. Drapek. 2007. Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2, and growth response to CO2. Eos Trans. AGU 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract B11D-0764. [PDF – 887kb]
Neilson, R.P. 1995. A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecological Applications 5(2): 362-385. [PDF – 3.93mb]
Sitch, S., B. Smith, I.C. Prentice, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, J.O. Kaplan, S. Levis, W. Lucht, M.T. Sykes, K. Thonicke and S. Venevsky. 2003. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology 9: 161-185. [PDF – 1.09mb]
Smith, B., I.C. Prentice and M.T. Sykes. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecology & Biogeography 10: 621-637. [PDF – 2.34mb]
VEMAP Members. 1995. Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9(4): 407-437. [PDF – 2.34mb]
White, M.A., P.E. Thornton, S.W. Running and R.R. Nemani. 2000. Parameterization and sensitivity analysis of the BIOME-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model: net primary production controls. Earth Interactions 4(3): 1-85. [PDF – 643kb]
Woodward, F.I. and M.R. Lomas. 2004. Vegetation dynamics - simulating responses to climatic change. Biol. Rev. 79: 643-670. [PDF – 855kb]
Woodward, F.I., M.R. Lomas and C.K. Kelly. 2004. Global climate and the distribution of plant biomes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 359: 1465-1476. [PDF – 5.6mb]
Gap
Bugmann, H.K.M. and A.M. Solomon. 2000. Explaining forest composition and biomass across multiple biogeographical regions. Ecological Applications 10(1): 95-114. [PDF – 308kb]
Busing, R. 2007. A spatial landscape model of forest patch dynamics and climate change: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5040, 50p. [PDF – 1.53mb]
Busing, R.T., A.M. Solomon, R.B. McKane and C.A. Burdick. 2007. Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: evaluation and application of an individual-based model. Ecological Applications 17(7): 1967-1981. [PDF – 704kb]
Garman, S.L., J.H. Cissel and J.H. Mayo. 2003. Accelerating development of late-successional conditions in young managed Douglas-fir stands: a simulation study. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-557. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 57p. [PDF – 2.91kb]
General
Cushman, S.A., D. McKenzie, D. Peterson, J. Littell, K.S. McKelvey. 2007. Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-194. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 51p. [PDF – 1.54mb]
Beukema, S.J., D.C.E. Robinson and L.A. Greig. 2007. Forests, insects & pathogens and climate change: workshop report. Prepared for The Western Wildlands Threat Assessment Center, Prineville, Oregon. 39pp. [PDF – 382kb]
Hampe, A. 2004. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography 13: 469-471. [PDF – 208kb]
ESSA Technologies Ltd. 2007. Development of a Climate–Driven Forest Vegetation Simulator: the Priest River Experimental Forest Workshop Results. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd., for Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Moscow, Idaho and the Forest Management Service Center, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO. 14 p. [PDF – 363kb]
Kearney, M. and W.P. Porter. 2004. Mapping the fundamental niche: physiology, climate, and the distribution of a nocturnal lizard. Ecology 85(11): 3119-3131. [PDF – 639kb]
Pearson, R.G. and T.P. Dawson. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology & Biogeography 12: 361-371. [PDF – 298kb]
Pearson, R.G. and T.P. Dawson. 2004. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide – response to Hampe (2004). Global Ecology and Biogeography 13: 471-473. [PDF – 208kb]
Rastetter, E.B., J.D. Aber, D.P.C. Peters, D.S. Ojima and I.C. Burke. 2003. Using mechanistic models to scale ecological processes across space and time. BioScience 53(1): 68-76. [PDF – 376kb]
Genetics
Garcia-Ramos, G. and D. Rodriguez. 2002. Evolutionary speed of species invasions. Evolution 56(4): 661-668. [PDF – 200kb]
Millar, C.I., N.L. Stephenson and S.L. Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17(8): 2145-2151. [PDF – 142kb]
Wang, T., A. Hamann, A. Yanchuk, G.A. O’Neill and S.N. Aitken. 2006. Use of response functions in selecting lodgepole pine populations for future climates. Global Change Biology 12: 2404-2416. [PDF – 838kb]
Landscape
Agarwal, C., G.M. Green, J.M. Grove, T.P. Evans and C.M. Schwik. 2002. A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-297. Newton Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. 61p. [PDF – 860kb]
Keane, R.E. and M. Rollins. 2006. The scientific foundation of the LANDFIRE prototype project. In: Rollins, M.G.; Frame, C.K., tech. eds. 2006. The LANDFIRE Prototype Project: nationally consistent and locally relevant geospatial data for wildland fire management. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-175. Fort Collins: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. [PDF – 719kb]
Keane, R.E., G.J. Cary, I.D. Davies, M.D. Flannigan, R.H. Gardner, S. Lavorel, J.M. Lenihan, C. Li and T.S. Rupp. 2004. A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling 179: 3-27. [PDF – 665kb]
Keane, R.E., L.M. Holsinger and S.D. Pratt. 2006. Simulating historical landscape dynamics using landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-171CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 73p. [PDF – 2.01mb]
Presentations
Joyce, L. 2008. Application of biogeochemical models in the assessment of climate change impacts. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 9.15mb]
Parton, B. 2008. Responses of biogeochemistry models to climate change. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 2.07mb]
Bachelet, D. 2008. Vegetations models and climate change: dynamic global vegetation models. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT –1.52mb]
Neilson, R. 2008. Dynamic general vegetation models and climate change: current state and future potential. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 7.82mb]
Busing, R. 2008. Forest gap models: climate change applications. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 20.5mb]
Price, D. 2008. Use (and abuse?) of FORSKA2—a forest patch model. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 2.78mb]
Hemstrom. 2008. Using state and transition models for climate change. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 41.6mb]
Keane, B. 2008. Landscape disturbance succession modeling: liking comprehensive ecosystem simulations for management applications. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 7.92mb]
Iverson, L., A. Prasad, S. Matthews and M. Peters. 2008. Using DISTRIB, a statistical model and SHIFT, a cell-based model, to assess potential climate change impacts on forests in the eastern U.S. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 11.9mb]
Thorne, J.F. 2008. Adapting long-term nature reserve design for global change—two examples from the Mid-Atlantic Region. A PowerPoint presentation for the Vegetation Models and Climate Change Workshop, Portland, Oregon, January 23-25, 2008. [PPT – 12.1mb]
Statistical Species Distribution
Araujo, M.B. and A. Guisan. 2006. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33: 1677-1688. [PDF – 129kb]
Araujo, M.B and M. New. 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 22(1): 42-47. [PDF – 409kb]
Davis, A.J., L.S. Jenkinson, J.H. Lawton, B.Shorrocks and S. Wood. 1998. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391: 783-786. [PDF – 237kb]
Guisan, A. and N.E. Zimmermann. 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135: 147-186. [PDF – 1.04mb]
Hansen, A.J., R.P. Neilson, V.H. Dale, C.H. Flather, L.R. Iverson, D.J. Currie, S. Shafer, R. Cook, P.J. Bartlein. 2001. Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes. BioScience 51(9): 765-779. [PDF – 2.56mb]
Iverson, L.R and A.M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68(4): 465-485. [PDF – 304kb]
Iverson, L.R., A. Prasad and M.W. Schwartz. 1999. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus viginiana. Ecological Modelling 115: 77-93. [PDF – 1.67mb]
Iverson, L.R., M.W. Schwartz and A.M. Prasad. 2004a. How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 13: 209-219. [PDF – 618kb]
Iverson, L.R., M.W. Schwartz and A.M. Prasad. 2004b. Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecology 19: 787-799. [PDF – 556kb]
Iverson, L.R., A.M. Prasad, S.N. Matthews and M. Peters. 2008a. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management 254(3): 390-406. [PDF – 2.26mb]
Iverson, L., A. Prasad and S. Matthews. 2008b. Modeling potential climate change impacts on trees of northeastern United States. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change 13(5-6): 487-516. [PDF – 549kb]
Lawler, J.J., D. White, R.P. Neilson and A.R. Blaustein. 2006. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability. Global Change Biology 12: 1568-1584. [PDF – 201mb]
McKenney, D.W., J.H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, K. Cambell and M.F. Hutchinson. 2007. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. BioScience 57(11): 939-948. [PDF – 1.77mb]
Pearson, R.G. and T.P. Dawson. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology & Biogeograhpy 12: 361-371. [PDF – 298kb]
Pearson, R.G., W. Thuiller, M.B. Araujo, E. Martinez-Meyer, L. Brontons, C. McClean, L. Miles, P. Segurado, T.P. Dawson and D.C. Lees. 2006. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeograpy 33: 1704-1711. [PDF – 1.24mb]
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