Prognosis EI: A Detailed Watershed-level Environmental Indicators Model

The Prognosis Environmental Indicators model (Prognosis EI) was designed to assist forest management planning. The model can provide detailed, quantitative and reproducible environmental impact projections for a wide range of environmental indicators and timber values under user-defined scenarios. It can simulate diverse management and natural disturbance scenarios at both the stand and watershed level. It can also be used to help balance multiple values in management planning. Moreover, once priority management goals have been identified, Prognosis EI can help develop new, alternative management regimes that better achieve these goals.

The Prognosis EI model is designed to operate with Prognosis and two of its model extensions (the FVS Fire and Fuels Extension and the Western Root Disease Model) in the context of the Parallel Processing Extension, or PPE. The PPE co-ordinates Prognosis' operations on hundreds of stands simultaneously, allowing the single-stand Prognosis model to be applied to entire watersheds.

The Environmental Indicators model combines Prognosis' forecast stand conditions with other ecological data to project future environmental values under the same scenarios. The Environmental Indicators model is designed to work with Prognosis at the watershed level (up to ~1500 stands). It includes the following three types of indicators:

1.	Non-spatial and stand-level indicators
2.	Spatial indicators
3.	Species-specific indicators

Non-spatial and stand-level indicators

(click to enlarge)

Spatial indicators

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Species-specific indicators

	for ungulates: area of prime winter foraging habitat, and condition of designated management units
	for bears: summer foraging habitat quality and number of potential denning trees/snags
	for pileated woodpeckers: winter foraging habitat quality, nesting habitat quality, and number of potential drumming snags
	for bats: amount of high contrast edge for foraging, and number of potential roosting snags

Case Study: West Arm Demonstration Forest

A more detailed discussion and a sample of results from the West Arm Demonstration Forest (WADF) case study is presented in Greenough et al. (1999) [PDF - 3.3 mb].

Additional Information at Related Sites:
Prognosis^BC web site - Extensions to Prognosis^BC, PrognosisEI

Prognosis EI Reports and Publications