|
Decision analysis is a powerful approach to making
decisions in the face of significant uncertainty. BC Hydro has recognised
this by incorporating a decision analysis approach into the Water
Use Planning Process. ESSA has successfully
applied decision analysis to a wide range of multi-stakeholder
decision-making processes in many areas of resource management.
While a powerful tool in its own right, we have found that the utility
of decision analysis is greatly enhanced when used in conjunction
with other skills at which ESSA excels, including multi-stakeholder
facilitation, experimental design,
modelling, and technical analyses.
For example, ESSA was the lead facilitator for
a multi-agency research program (PATH)
to evaluate the effects of proposed operation of the Federal Columbia
River Hydropower System on ESA-listed salmon species in the Snake
and Columbia River (Marmorek and Peters 2001, Peters and Marmorek
2001, Peters et al. 2001). As facilitators, we used decision analysis
as a tool for involving scientists and agencies with varying interests,
values, and viewpoints by allowing multiple hypotheses about the
role of hydrosystem, climate, habitat, and other effects on observed
declines of Snake River salmon (Peters et al. in review; Peters
and Marmorek in review; Deriso et al. in review). Using this approach,
we were able to make progress on identifying key uncertainties and
the effects of actions despite the long-standing issues and uncertainties
that had stymied previous co-operative efforts in the high-stakes
arena of Columbia River salmon management.
We recently completed a similar decision analysis
/ facilitation approach to assist BC Hydro and other stakeholders
in the development of a Water
Use Plan for the Cheakamus River. This WUP process has been
challenging due to several factors including the "anchoring"
created by a previous court case, and difficulties faced by the
Fisheries Technical Committee in identifying appropriate fish population
performance measures. Our facilitation expertise has maintained
a high level of commitment to the WUP process by all members of
a stakeholder Consultative Committee over a two and a half year
period, despite historic tensions. Also, ESSA's experience in leading
impact hypothesis workshops helped the FTC to prioritise research
needs, develop models and performance measures, and provide evaluations
of alternatives that helped the Consultative Committee evaluate
alternatives (Marmorek and Parnell 2000).
In another project for BC Hydro, we used decision
analysis to evaluate
effects of alternative releases from Keenleyside Dam on dewatering
mortality of mountain whitefish populations (Alexander et al. 2000a).
The decision analysis was embedded in a user-friendly software tool
that could be used not only to evaluate proposed long-term release
strategies, but also to assess potential experimental releases from
Keenleyside Dam and the trade-offs among the potential learning
benefits of those experiments, their costs in terms of foregone
power revenues, and the risks imposed on whitefish populations.
The decision analysis software we developed served as a useful vehicle
for incorporating the views and values of scientists from BC Hydro,
MELP, DFO, and First Nations.
As a final example, ESSA is using decision analysis
to assess experimental
releases from Whiskeytown Dam (Clear Creek, California) on downstream
ESA-listed chinook and steelhead populations (Alexander et al. 2000b).
One of the challenges in this project is to consider trade-offs
not only between fish and power-related values, but also among operation
of various projects in the same river system. For example, increasing
flows from Whiskeytown Dam may require decreasing releases from
other dams in the Sacramento power system, which will affect power
generation and downstream fish populations associated with those
dams. Decision analysis is providing a useful structure for considering
these types of complex interactions between operations at connected
hydroelectric projects.
These examples provide a broad overview of ESSA's
experience in using decision analysis as a method for evaluating
actions. A key element in the success of these projects has been
ESSA's ability to combine decision analysis with our expertise in
the area of facilitation and mediation, statistical and technical
analyses, and modelling. Taken together, this suite of tools, skills,
and experience provides a powerful and effective approach to evaluating
trade-offs and making resource management decisions in a multi-stakeholder
environment.
References
|
